Breaking the China-Taiwan Impasse Donald S. Zagoria

Tensions between China and Taiwan are not likely to abate in the foreseeable future. The question of Taiwan's sovereignty is the major point of friction, and the continuing impasse between China and Taiwan is worrisome. Zagoria presents perspectives from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei on cross-strait tensions, exploring ways to break the current standoff. Tensions between China and Taiwan are not likely to abate in the foreseeable future. The question of Taiwan's sovereignty is the major point of friction, and the continuing impasse between China and Taiwan is worrisome. Should critical political negotiations falter, relations are likely to take on stronger military overtones, and the PRC may well develop a sense of urgency about Taiwan drifting towards independence.

These, at least, are the broad conclusions drawn from the ongoing dialogues among top U.S., Chinese, and Taiwanese figures, sponsored by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy. This Track II project provides a forum for top policy analysts from each country to discuss trilateral relations in a frank and constructive manner, and is an effort to explore means of peacefully resolving the current impasse. Among the more significant findings is that the more serious risks of conflict will probably occur in the distant future, hinging on whether economic integration can gradually lead to a reduction of political tensions, and that the United States should continue to oppose any declaration of independence by Taiwan and any use of force by China.